Pastoral Care > Health And Welfare > Planning For A Human Influenza Pandemic
It is impossible to predict when the next pandemic might occur or how severe its consequences might be. On average, three pandemics per century have been documented since the 16th century, occurring at intervals of 10 - 50 years. In the 20th century, pandemics occurred in 1918, 1957 and 1968. The pandemic of 1918 is estimated to have killed more than 40 million people in less than a year, with peak mortality rates occurring in those aged 20 - 45 years. The pandemics of 1957 and 1968 were milder with 1 - 4 million estimated deaths primarily in traditional groups such as the elderly, but many countries nevertheless experienced strains on health-care resources. If an influenza pandemic virus were to appear again similar to the 1918 strain, even taking account of recent medical advances, unparalleled tolls of illness and death could be expected. Air travel would hasten the spread of transmission of the virus and decrease the time available for preparing intervention. Although it is not considered to feasible to halt the spread of a pandemic virus, it should be possible to minimize its consequences through advance preparation. This note, which will be reviewed and re-issued annually, sets out guidelines in the event of a pandemic together with the school's policy in relation to the control and prevention of flu-like symptoms as a matter of routine.
The WHO constantly monitors the various flu-type viruses that emerge each year and categorises the development of each within five defined phases, with particular concern where there is evidence that a virus that emanated in animals or birds has become adapted to humans. At Phase 4, international air travel is likely to be compromised. In any boarding environment with overseas students, this would be a significant milestone. The Bursar will routinely monitor the WHO categorisation of virus developments and advise the SMT of unusual or worrying developments. Advice will also be issued through the ISBA, MOSA and the Pandemic Influenza Planning Group established in the Health Protection Agency.
Advice to all sectors is that they should seek to continue operating as normally as possible during a pandemic, but should plan for much higher than usual levels of staff absence and the consequences as well as for other possible disruption resulting from the pandemic's impact on other services. However, schools are potentially different from other settings. Children are highly efficient "spreaders" of respiratory infections, amongst themselves and to adults. There is some evidence that such infections spread less amongst children in holiday periods than in term-time. Thus, closing school for a period might reduce significantly the number of children infected. Once the nature of any future pandemic is detected, the Government may advise schools to close for a stated period. Our response to any pandemic should cover both closure and the school remaining open.
The Bursar, Second Master and the Director of Studies will be responsible to the Headmaster for co-ordinating the school's response which will be graduated according to what may be a quickly changing scenario. Unless directed to close, the aim will be to conduct business as normal within the following:
As a matter of course during the traditional "flu season" from Nov - Mar, pupils and staff should be actively encouraged by housemaster to minimise potential influenza transmission through good hygiene measures as follows:
The School Marshal, Catering Manager and House Matrons are to adopt as appropriate the following measures to improve general hygiene as a matter of course:
The School Marshall is to hold three months' stocks of latex gloves, medicated face masks and suitable plastic bags. Perishable stocks are to be turned-over on a regular basis.
It is difficult to determine in advance the likely consequences for the school in the event of a major pandemic. The school should continue to function unless instructed to close or in the event of local conditions making continuation impossible or unsafe. Flexibility would be required by all staffs, with due emphasis at all levels being given to minimising the risk through good and responsible personal and general hygiene.